2013-14 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

I'm 24-9 against the spread picking the playoffs these last three seasons, and it's probably all luck. Nah, I'm kidding. It's skill. I'm skilled. Plus, I look at the games as one big macro bet rather than several micro ones. It helps put a very muddled league into perspective. Or at least that's what I've told myself.

Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5), 4:35 p.m.

These teams played a few weeks ago in Kansas City and the Chiefs got pounded. I've read Bill Barnwell's insightful piece on the game and it appears that their turnover problems were an aberration more than anything. Still, the Colts have gotten hot, and I'm not sure you've noticed but they've won home games over Denver and Seattle and road games over the Niners and Chiefs. I'm completely confident in this Colts team right now, and they have the quarterback and coach advantage. PLUS they're home. If there's a sleeper Super Bowl team in the AFC, it's coming out of this game. I say the Colts are that team. The one thing that makes me nervous is how 60% of the public money is on the Colts. The public loves the Colts, and the public is dumb. But I guess I'm alright with that, considering the spread has come down from 2.5. Maybe the public loves the Chiefs. Dummies. (Note: I erroneously thought the Colts were favorites at gametime. They were actually dogs. SCORE! ) Colts 24, Chiefs 16 

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3), 8:10 p.m.

This game has become a referendum into whether the Saints problems on the road are an epidemic. Can they play outdoors, in the cold, blah blah blah? But I can't believe that Sean Payton and Drew Brees are just going to get shut down in this game. The Eagles can't really stop the pass according to the advanced numbers, and isn't passing what the Saints do best? I think the game's going to be played in the 20s, like most Saints road games, but I believe in them no matter where they play. The Eagles are going to have trouble protecting Nick Foles, just enough trouble that a late turnover gives the game to New Orleans. Saints 24, Eagles 23

Sunday

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), 1:05 p.m.

Ruh Roh, it's the team that snuck into the playoffs against the team quarterbacked by Andy Dalton. The Bengals have been that team that's been blowing out teams at home despite its shaky QB situation, and it's one of those situations where you don't want to pick them the ONE week where they can't make up for those mistakes. Still, the numbers I look at say that the Bengals are a solid team and the Chargers have the worst defense in the entire NFL. Phil Rivers or not, I don't see how they're going to make up for that. They're going to get pushed around on both sides of the ball, and the SECOND ROUND will give us our first great opportunity to gamble against Dalton. Bengals 30, Chargers 17

San Francisco 49'ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5), 4:30 p.m.

Ooh, the classic matchup of two franchises with multiple Super Bowl titles. And a temperature of like, a degree or two, if they're lucky. It's almost useless looking at Green Bay's offensive rankings considering that Aaron Rodgers only returned last week. I think the game's going to come down to whether Jim Harbaugh's offense can continue fooling and abusing the Packers' defense. It's a tough one, and the coaching matchup is clearly in San Francisco's favor. Still, in what might be a game we remember a long time, I like the Packers winning an extremely close game with some sort of late big play. You know, kind of like last week. Packers 27, 49'ers 23